Let’s hope that spring makes consumption grow. The foreign markets hesitate, and it will not be easy to sell the European surpluses.
Total forecasted average profitability for the year has eroded some, from about $25/head to around $12/head in the US.
The structural deficit of pigs in Germany and the latent ASF threat have caused an important increase in prices that has dragged all the European markets.
Huge supplies, increasing production and an efficient, coordinated global chain fuels low cost soybean meal, cheap feed and high profits.
The threat of ASF in Germany causes that nobody wants to keep greats stocks because of the risk that they become ‘unsaleable’. This attitude of selling at all costs has caused a collapse of meat prices in Europe.
How serious is the possibility that US corn production could undergo a substantial reduction in the coming crop year?
As of today, with 2017 almost ended, the annual Spanish pig price (arithmetic, not weighted) mean is €1.26/kg LW.
Resist, resist and resist should be the motto for the first three months of 2018.