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Keeping in the tradition, at the beginning of the year we asked our users for their opinion on what they thought the average pig price will be for the current year. A total of 734 users from 72 countries participated in the survey with their predictions, which are shown in the following graph:
Figure 1. Expected average price in 2023: Comparison between 333 users' predictions (collected between February 14 and March 19, 2023) and the actual average price in 2021 and 2022. For each country, the range of responses is shown by the orange bar, where the maximum, minimum, and median values are represented. The actual average price in 2021 and 2022 are indicated by blue dots. The number of data analyzed for each country is shown in parentheses.
Unlike other years, where forecasts by European users were pessimistic, this year their forecasts were very optimistic, with all predictions surpassing 2022 prices, which were at record levels, as can be seen in the price graphs in our markets section.
The EU is experiencing changing times in pig production, with significant decreases in the number of animals, especially in Central European countries. Germany is still unable to sell abroad due to African swine fever. In Spain, the leading pig producer, there is also a lack of animals, which in their case is due to sanitary problems caused by a particularly virulent recombinant strain of PRRS that is wreaking havoc, with high percentages of abortions and very high mortality.
Added to all this is the global problem of high feed prices. Although they have fallen in recent weeks, they are still at historically high levels (see the section on commodity prices). Together with rising energy prices, production is made less profitable. It doesn't stop there; high consumer price inflation for pork along with a trend towards diets that include less meat are reducing demand.
Users in Latin America also made predictions above current prices, especially in Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico.
On the other hand, Asian countries, particularly China and Vietnam, have made downward forecasts, in line with the trend of continued price decreases since October.
333 Staff
