In Spain, August 15th will mark a turning point. The supply is recovering and the price will drop. In Europe there is an oversupply. The dollar is falling and the prices of American meat are more attractive.
USA: PEDv created more fever than just in the pigs.
Very probably, the Spanish price will remain above €1.40/kg liveweight until late July, supported by the weakness of the supply and helped by the weather.
Export markets can keep profits flowing even if the industry nudges production into record territory.
In June, the Spanish price will keep on rising. The heart of the matter is how much more it will increase. If it is not possible to pass on the rise in the price of pigs to pork, all the upward trend will have to be at the expense of the abattoirs’ margin.
For good farmers, pigs continue to be very profitable, but for many not! Some are even losing money (incredible though it seems).
Continued emergence of producer owned packing is setting up a new closed market channel which may evolve its own pricing structures which take it farther and farther from the common, historical patterns.
The Spanish market has taken a rest for Easter, but the rises will go on.