September will witness a series of drops in price, like a cascade. The abattoirs demand incentives to increase the slaughterings. The limit of the fall will depend on the international context.
There is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen to the US pork export picture now that President Trump has pulled out of TPP and wants to renegotiate NAFTA.
This means looking at ‘whole business decisions’, being able to do good calculations that take into account all production factors. Taking decisions on single traits, like born alive, have no place in a modern effective pig industry.
In Spain, August 15th will mark a turning point. The supply is recovering and the price will drop. In Europe there is an oversupply. The dollar is falling and the prices of American meat are more attractive.
USA: PEDv created more fever than just in the pigs.
Very probably, the Spanish price will remain above €1.40/kg liveweight until late July, supported by the weakness of the supply and helped by the weather.
Export markets can keep profits flowing even if the industry nudges production into record territory.
In June, the Spanish price will keep on rising. The heart of the matter is how much more it will increase. If it is not possible to pass on the rise in the price of pigs to pork, all the upward trend will have to be at the expense of the abattoirs’ margin.