Export markets can keep profits flowing even if the industry nudges production into record territory.
In June, the Spanish price will keep on rising. The heart of the matter is how much more it will increase. If it is not possible to pass on the rise in the price of pigs to pork, all the upward trend will have to be at the expense of the abattoirs’ margin.
For good farmers, pigs continue to be very profitable, but for many not! Some are even losing money (incredible though it seems).
Continued emergence of producer owned packing is setting up a new closed market channel which may evolve its own pricing structures which take it farther and farther from the common, historical patterns.
The Spanish market has taken a rest for Easter, but the rises will go on.
Much in the summer will depend on the opening of the increased market capacity (as two major new plants swing open) and the industry reacts to it.
The prices rise in all Europe. In the last market session in March the German price has only grown by €0.07/kg carcass weight, and this conveys firmness and security all over the place.
There is a fear that President Trump’s public face to Mexico and China may result in lower export sales for the coming year.