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Given this trend and lower gains in productivity, a further drop in French production seems very likely.
This supply constraint, both in France and in the EU, will likely favor some price resilience. In any case, China, which has long been the price driver in the pork market, no longer seems capable of playing this role in 2024. Chinese production has developed, leading to an increasing reduction in the country's imports. In addition, Spain, Brazil, and the United States (the latter two with extremely competitive prices) are well established in this highly competitive market.
France's export capacity tends to be restricted in proportion to the reduction in production. Domestic consumption is also traditionally seen as the natural outlet for French production and export is often seen as only for releasing surpluses. Even under favorable conditions, the quantities exported tend to reach a "peak" very quickly, as we saw in 2020-2021.
The decrease in swine production will continue to pressure the slaughtering/cutting sector, with possible further restructuring. Pork prices, if sustained, also risk continuing to weigh on the processing sector.
March 2024/ Markets for dairy, meat, and poultry products. Bilan 2023/ France AgriMer/ France.
https://www.franceagrimer.fr/
