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“Unprecedented” was arguably the word of the year for 2020. By definition this would make predicting the average pig price difficult if not impossible to do. Between February and April of 2020 we asked users of 333 what they thought the average price would be in their country; many were up for the challenge. Now that this unprecedented year has come to a close, let’s take a look at how our users’ predictions compared to the actual average pig prices for 2020. The results are shown in Figure 1:
Figure 1. Average price in 2020: Comparison between 333 users' predictions (collected between February and April 2020) and the average actual price for the whole year. For each country, the range of responses is shown via the blue bar, where the maximum, minimum, and median values are represented. The actual average price in 2020 is indicated by a red dot. The number of analyzed data is shown in parenthesis.
Users in many countries expected the average pig price to be higher this year than it actually was. Of course COVID-19 and African swine fever probably played a large part in this, but it is also worth noting that users were very optimistic with their predictions. At the time of the poll (Feb-April), most of the countries surveyed expected a price higher than their respective country’s 3-year average; this was the case for Spain, Germany, France, Poland, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.
The actual average pig price in Spain and Germany fell well below user expectations. In fact, no single German user surveyed expected the price to be so low, with the average actual 2020 German pig price falling outside the low range of predictions (see Figure 1). Germany started the year with record-high prices which then dropped to record seasonal lows after ASF entered the country and China (along with most third countries) banned imports from Germany, not to mention the effects of COVID-19.
Also falling short of expectations was the price in Poland. The average price sits just within the low range of survey submissions and significantly lower than the median predicted price. Users were expecting record high prices, but prices fell from historical record highs at the beginning of the year to end at historic lows.
Figure 2. Annual evolution of the pig price by country (blue), the thick line represents the price in 2020. The date of the first confirmed COVID-19 case is shown in red and the date of the first ASF case in Germany is shown in pink.
The price predicted by the users from the United States was lower than the 3-year average, but their prediction still ended up being higher than the actual average pig price this year. How could users have anticipated the devastating periods of slaughterhouse shutdowns due to workers being ill with COVID-19 that caused back-ups of market hogs?
Three countries saw average 2020 pig prices higher than 333 users predicted: Russia, Brazil, and Colombia. Users in Russia had predicted that the average price would be lower than it has been the last 3 years, but it held basically steady from 2019. The average pig price in Brazil has taken off in the last couple years. Brazilian users had predicted growth from the previous year but were just a little low in their prediction. As for Colombia, users predicted the average price would fall from 2019 but instead it rose, exceeding their expectations.
With a prediction right on the mark was Argentina. The Argentine users who responded to the survey submitted a wide range of estimates for the average price in 2020, but the median of their predictions yielded a result that was almost exactly the actual average price of the year. Pig production and pork exports in Argentina have increased steadily in recent years. (See this recent article.) The increase in price may also be influenced by the country’s currency devaluation.
What will pig prices be in 2021? We invite you to participate in the economic question of the year by sending us your prediction. Click here: What will the average slaughter pig price be in your country in 2021? We look forward to hearing what you think!
Figure 3. Evolution of the average price and standard deviation by year and country (blue). In pink is the median of the average price in 2020 obtained by the 333 survey.
333 Staff.
