Pork production in 2012 is forecast to jump four percent to 51.3 MMT from an estimated three percent decline in the previous year. Fueled by sharply higher prices in 2011, China’s pork producers are steadily expanding herd size and this will help boost pork output beginning early 2012. Production growth is also being supported by China’s decision in July 2011 to resume a 100 yuan ($15.60) per sow subsidy and introduce other policies to encourage herd expansion.
Despite the expected recovery in pork production, China’s pork imports will continue to rise due to strong pork demand and competitive pricing on imports. Overall, pork imports in 2012 are expected to increase eight percent to 480,000 metric tons (CWE), while pork offal imports in 2012 are expected to increase 10 percent to over 700,000 MT, product weight (PW). Pork exports in 2012 are forecast to rise five percent to 272,000 MT (CWE) due to strong demand in China’s traditional Asian export markets.
China’s live swine imports in 2012 are forecast at 12,000 head, up 20 percent from estimated imports in 2011. Imports in 2011 are forecast to nearly double to 10,000 head. Nearly all these imports are breeding swine. Sales are rising due to a strong need for improved genetics, high pork market prices, and China’s aforementioned decision this summer to restore sow subsidies.
October, 2011/ FAS-USDA/ United States.