World Meat - FAPRI 2010 Agricultural Outlook: Pork

Recovering from a 12% drop in 2009, pork trade grows by 2.8% (122 tmt) annually in the next decade, reaching 5.52 mmt in 2019. Pork production increases in the next decade at a rate of 1.9% (1.85 mmt), reaching 115.46 mmt in 2019.
Monday 25 October 2010 (8 years 1 months 16 days ago)
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Recovering from a 12% drop in 2009, pork trade grows by 2.8% (122 tmt) annually in the next decade, reaching 5.52 mmt in 2019. Pork production increases in the next decade at a rate of 1.9% (1.85 mmt), reaching 115.46 mmt in 2019.

The EU loses 7.0 percentage points of market share, dropping from 30.3% to 23.3%. Also, the long-term competitiveness of the EU is not very promising, given its appreciating currency and strict animal welfare and environmental regulations. Canada’s market share decreases by 6.4 percentage points, while the U.S. gains 13.2 percentage points. Despite SPS challenges, Brazil’s long-term prospects are good, with new investments to improve infrastructure and raise productivity. Brazil’s market share grows by 4.4 percentage points.
Hog inventory in Canada has declined since 2006. It begins to grow in 2011. A shrinking herd and lower industry returns cause lower production in the short run. Canada’s exports of live hogs to the U.S. decline at 0.8%, reaching 5.93 million head in 2019, partly because of uncertainty about COOL. Pork net exports decline in the short run and stay at around 0.9 mmt over the baseline.

Brazil’s pork exports grow by 9.0% annually, reaching 1.1 mmt in 2019. Improvement in productivity, favorable domestic policies, and a weakening currency improve Brazil’s competitiveness in the world pork market. Stimulated by increased export refunds, the EU’s net exports jumped by 17.9% in 2008, but they decline after that and end at 1.2 mmt in 2019. Strict environmental regulations and animal welfare requirements limit the EU’s long-term capability. Production is stable over the projection period, compared to the 0.2% growth in
consumption. Taiwan’s pork production declined 11.7% between 1997 and 2008. Constrained by environmental pressures and high feed costs, production increases at 0.5%, which boosts net imports by 16% per year over the next decade. Recovery in the beef and poultry sectors impacts Japan’s pork sector. Consumption increases slightly, at 0.5%,
over the next decade, and production also increases, at 1.1%. As a result, net imports decline in the short run but turn around in 2013 and reach 1.2 mmt in 2019.

Consumption recovery boosted China’s net imports in 2008, with domestic production and consumption increasing 4% and 5%, respectively. Over the next decade, production grows at 2.8%, falling slightly short of the 3.0% growth in consumption. China’s exports have continued to decline, and the country becomes a net importer in 2014, as growth in imports exceeds growth in exports. Net imports expand to 138 tmt in 2019.

http://www.fapri.iastate.edu/outlook/2010/text/16Meat.pdf

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