After a pork production slowdown in 2011, production in 2012 is expected to stabilize at 2011 levels driven by production increases in the industrial sector. The growth is boosted by the stable high domestic pork price and high price for poultry which is often viewed as a substitute product by Ukrainian consumers and processors.
If price remains high, production in 2013 will grow despite feed cost increases. Feed supply in 2013 is expected to remain stable despite rather unfavorable weather conditions. Most Ukrainian pork producers are vertically integrated holdings and have some resistance to sharp price shocks. The trend for increased investments into the pork sector is expected to continue in 2013.
Imports of pork products in 2011/12 grew as forecasted. Import volume exceeded our previously forecasted level due to the same high domestic price factor. Similar to previous years, imported products were used by Ukrainian meat processors. This increase allowed the Brazilian producers to occupy over half of Ukrainian’s import market.
Imports in 2013 will remain significant, but forecasted to be less than 2012 level even if prices remain high.
Tuesday September 4, 2012/ FAS-USDA/ United States.