Despite a decrease in pork production in 2011, production in 2012 is expected to grow. The industry will be building stocks in response to cheap feeds and attractive pork prices. In early 2012, pork price levels exceeded those in 2010 and 2011. Significant money was put into pork production by both domestic and foreign strategic investors. This sets a foundation for long-term production growth. Increased imports of high-quality animals from Germany indirectly confirm this trend. The industry faces unsatisfied domestic demand, but export markets are limited to neighboring Russia.
African Swine Fever (ASF) cases registered in Eastern Europe this far had no impact on Ukrainian pork production. Ukraine introduced an import ban on Russian (in 2011) and Belorussian (in March 2012) pork and live pigs. Imports of these products were insignificant and had little impact on trade. So far Ukraine claims no officially confirmed AFS cases on its territory, although there were cases registered in close proximity to the border on Russian Federation side. Any possible AFS introduction could stop foreign trade in pork and have a negative production impact in affected areas. Being a net pork importer, Ukraine will not suffer very significant losses from trade stoppage. The production impact may wary widely depending on outbreak size.
Friday march 2, 2012/ GAIN-USDA/ United States.