According to FAS-USDA, Russian pork production is forecast to reach 3.310 million M T (CWE) in 2019, a 1.4 percent growth from 3.265 million MT (CWE) expected in 2018. The December 2017 ban on Brazilian imports removed over 330,000 MT of pork from Russian market. Prior to the trade restrictions, market signals were indicating the possibility of oversupply, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2017. The absence of Brazilian pork from the market created a boost for local production. Russian pig producers accelerated output, increasing production by 8.8 percent in 2018. The pace of the growth will likely slow in 2019 due to the structural limitations of Russian farms. The largest Russian pork companies have generally benefited from the current market situation. Industry leaders will continue to grow, even as competition is expected to intensify. Consolidation trends will continue.
Imports of slaughter pigs from key world suppliers are banned due to counter - sanctions. Imports of purebred breeding pigs wil l continue, and are forecast to remain stable at 5,000 head in 2019, unchanged from 2018. Ongoing concerns with African Swine Fever (ASF) will constrain Russian exports of live swine.
Pork consumption in 2019 is forecast at 3.315 million MT, the same level as expected in 2018. Consumption of pork is unlikely to increase in 2019 due to high feed prices and the increa se in the Value Added Tax (VAT) to 20 percent.
Monday October 29, 2018/ FAS/USDA/ United States.