The latest FAO forecast for global cereal production in 2015 stands at 2 540 million tonnes, 13.8 million tonnes more than expected in July, but still 21 million tonnes (0.8 percent) below the 2014 record. The upward revision resulted from more buoyant production prospects for coarse grains, wheat and rice.
A new FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, raises forecasts for global coarse grains output by 7.5 million tonnes to 1 311 million tonnes. However, this remains 19.9 million tonnes (1.5 percent) short of the 2014 record. The upgrade from July was mostly driven by better than anticipated growing conditions in Argentina (maize), Brazil (maize) and the United States (maize and sorghum), which more than offset a drop in maize production in the EU, where dry and hot weather dampened yield expectations.
As the harvest is nearing completion in the Northern Hemisphere, the global wheat production forecast for 2015 is becoming firmer, with 728 million tonnes now expected, 5 million tonnes more than previously foreseen. The revision was driven by higher expectations for crops in Australia, the EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, more than offsetting a lower production forecast for Canada, where major growing areas continued to be affected by dry conditions.
Prospects for world rice production (milled basis) have also improved since July 2015, albeit by only 1.3 million tonnes, mainly attributable to India, where plantings are progressing in line with last season in spite of the prevailing El Niño. Based on the current forecast of 501 million tonnes, global rice production would be 3.6 million tonnes (0.7 percent) greater than in 2014.
The FAO forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons in 2016 has been raised by almost 12 million tonnes since July, to 643 million tonnes, on account of more optimistic crop prospects, putting this season's ending inventories only 6 million tonnes (1 percent) below its record high opening level.
Thursday September 10, 2015/ FAO.