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USDA corn and soybeans projections for the 2022/2023 season - February 2023

Once again, the production estimate for Argentina's crops was reduced as a result of the adverse weather conditions that have accompanied the development of the crops in this new season.

Graph 1: Projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2022/23 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on February 8:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1151.4 million tons (Mt), a 5.3% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1216.0 Mt).

United States production is expected to be around 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 1.7% to reach 277.2 Mt. The European Union will see a decrease of 23.6% at 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, will see a decrease of 35.9%.

For Brazil, the projection of 125 Mt was maintained, which represents a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season, while for Argentina, the production estimate was once again sharply reduced to 47 Mt, which represents a 5.1% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season.

World corn exports are forecast to decrease by 11.6%, from 204.7 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 181.1 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by decreases in the European Union (-63.3%), the United States (-22.1%), and Ukraine (-16.6%).

South America's exportable supply showed significant changes, increasing by 4.2% for Brazil in this new season with 50 Mt, while Argentina's exports would increase by only 2.9% with 35 Mt.

China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt), while the European Union is expected to increase its imports by 18.8% with 23.5 Mt.

World ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.6% to 295.3 Mt. For Ukraine, India, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks are forecast to fall by 33.4%, 32.7%, 26.2%, 9.5%, 8.0%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil, Egypt, and Iran, stocks are expected to grow by 77.6%, 15.1%, and 13.7%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase 7.0% over the previous season, from 358.0 to 383.0 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 18.1% for Brazil, which would reach 153 Mt, while Argentina is projected to fall by 6.6% with 41.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 138.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual up to the 2020/21 season.

In this new report, the United States crop is projected at 116.4 Mt, a drop of 4.2% compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

Export activity should be led by Brazil with 92.0 Mt, growing by 16.3% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 54.2 Mt, a figure that represents a 7.8% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 4.2 Mt, which would mean an increase of 46.8% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

China is expected to import 96 Mt, an increase of 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

Ending stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 3.2% globally, reaching 102.0 Mt. However, for the United States, the European Union, and Argentina, stocks are expected to fall by 17.9%, 7.4%, and 6.3%, respectively, while for Brazil and China, stocks are expected to increase by 20.1% and 3.0%, respectively.

333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/