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Corn and soybean forecasts for the 2022/2023 season USDA - March 2023

Significant cuts were made to world corn export estimates compared to the February report, while global soybean production was again projected downward, largely due to losses and low yields in the Argentine crop.

Figure 1. Forecasts for the world's main corn and soybean producers - 2022/23 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

Here are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 8:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1147.5 million tons (Mt), a 5.6% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1216.0 Mt).

United States production is estimated to reach 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% compared to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is forecast to increase its harvest by 1.7%, reaching 277.2 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 23.6% decrease at 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, is expected to see a 35.9% decrease.

For Brazil, the projection of 125 Mt was maintained, which represents a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season, while for Argentina a sharp cut was again made, which would place production at just 40 Mt (the lowest in 5 years), representing a 19.2% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season.

World corn exports are forecast to decrease by 15.1%, from 205.7 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 174.7 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by decreases in the European Union (-63.3%), the United States (-25.1%), Argentina (-18.6%), and Ukraine (-12.9%).

South America's exportable supply showed significant changes, increasing by 3.1% for Brazil in this new season, with 50 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to decrease by 18.6%, reaching just 28 Mt.

China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt), while the European Union is expected to increase its imports by 18.8% with 23.5 Mt.

World ending stocks are expected to fall by 3.0% to 296.5 Mt. For Ukraine, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks will fall by 53.0%, 26.2%, 9.5%, 2.6%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil, Egypt, and Iran, stocks will increase by 87.9%, 15.1%, and 13.7%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 4.7% over the previous season, from 358.1 to 375.1 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 18.1% for Brazil, which would reach 153 Mt, while Argentina is projected to see a 24.8% decrease to 33.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 139.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, and returning to the levels normally seen prior to the 2020/21 season.

In this new report, the United States crop is projected at 116.4 Mt, a drop of 4.2% compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 92.7 Mt, growing by 17.2% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 54.8 Mt, representing a 6.6% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 3.4 Mt, which would mean an increase of 18.8% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

China is expected to import 96 Mt, an increase of 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

Ending stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 1.0% globally, reaching 100.0 Mt. However, for the United States, Argentina, and the European Union, stocks are expected to fall by 23.4%, 17.2%, and 7.4%, respectively, while for Brazil and China, ending stocks are expected to increase by 17.3% and 9.2%, respectively.