According to WASDE, this month's 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, lower stocks, and higher prices. Corn production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are lowered from last month but are stiII forecast at a record 16.859 billion bushels, as a smaller crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks due to a reduction in 2015/16 exports. Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is lowered 25 million bushels with a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are unchanged from last month, reflecting the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market. Corn ending stocks are down from last month but, if realized, would still be the highest since 1987/88 . The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents in both ends to $2.90 to $3.50 per bushel.
Brazil corn production is raised, as relatively favorable corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to boost first-crop planted area at the expense of soybeans. China corn production is lowered, based on drier-than-normal conditions during July and August in western HeiIongjiang and eastern lnner MongoIia. EU corn production is also reduced; even with lower barley production, EU internal market prices are expected to favor greater barley feeding, offsetting reduced corn feeding.
Corn exports are raised for Brazil with larger projected supplies for the IocaI marketing year beginning in March 2017. Corn imports are raised for China, reflecting updated expectations of trade by non-state importers.
Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 0.7 million tons from last month. Stock declines are the largest in Argentina and the EU, with the former reflecting expectations of larger exports during 2015/16. Global corn stocks, at 219.5 million, are down from last month but still projected to be record high.
September 12, 2016. WASDE 557