According to Rabobank, after the rather disappointing development in Q3, the global pork market will continue its slow recovery in Q4. Main driver of the limited growth in the global market were the adverse exchange rates, which limited global pork trade. This resulted in a clearly visible mismatch between supply and demand across the globe, with elevated price levels in one group of countries and stable/pressured prices in the other countries.
The global pork market will slowly improve towards the end of 2015 and into 2016. Trade is expected to continue to rise, but exchange rate developments will impact both the volumes and returns in key export markets.
In the longer term, the main question is how large the growth of pork production will be in importing countries and how this will impact global pork trade. This is an issue, as herd developments in the exporting countries show that production is expected to increase further.
Tuesday October 20, 2015/ Rabobank/ Netherlands.