According to FAS-USDA post forecasts Polish swine inventories to increase by three percent in 2017 due to the favorable farm-gate prices and reduced feed costs. In January 2017, swine inventories were five percent higher over last year. Farm-gate swine prices recovered in June 2016 and favorable feed prices drove swine-inventory growth during the second half of 2016 and first half of 2017. This growth trend emerged in June 2016 and then remained high through August 2017. Swine inventories will continue to grow in 2018, although at a slower pace than 2017.
Post estimates that pork output in 2017 will be 1.86 million MT, a one-percent decrease from 2016. Higher pork production during the second half of 2017 will not offset the reduction experienced during the first six months of 2017. Pork production is forecast to grow in 2018 because of higher inventories and higher slaughter.
Per capita pork consumption in 2017 is estimated at 41 kilograms, almost unchanged from 2016. Post expects that pork consumption in 2018 will grow because of higher domestic production. Pork meat and related products make up over 50 percent of total meat consumption in Poland. Polish consumers prefer pork over beef and poultry meat, which stimulates imports.
Poland remains a net pork importer. 70 percent of total 2016 pork imports (633,000 MT) came from Belgium, Germany, and Denmark. In 2016, overall Polish exports were 512,000 MT (a three-percent increase over 2015) because of export growth to the United States and Hong Kong, which offset reduced market share within the European Union. In 2017 and 2018 pork and related product exports are expected to grow. Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom are the major intra-EU markets. Major markets outside of the EU for Polish pork will be the United States and Hong Kong. In the first six months of 2017 Poland imported 320,000 MT of pork, which was unchanged from the corresponding period in 2016. Almost all imports came from within the EU. In the first half of 2017, Polish pork exports increased by 10 percent, driven by higher U.S. shipments, which amounted to 34,900 MT, a 40-percent increase over same period in 2016.
Tuesday November 21, 2017/ FAS-USDA/ United States.