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In the last decade, the main sources of growth were, in the first place, China where the increase in the demand of meat and fish caused an annual growth in the consumption of feed of almost 6% and, in the second place, the worldwide biofuels sector, in which the use of supplies of raw materials grew by almost 8% per year.
The Outlooks forecast that the increase in the demand of all the commodities will be lower than in the past decade. The demand per capita of cereals is expected to remain constant, with increases only in the less developed countries. The demand of meat is expected to grow. Nevertheless, aspects like preferences and the limited access will reduce its consumption in different countries.
The rise in the production of meat and milk will be attained through bigger-sized herds and a higher production per animal, with the persistence of big differences in the production intensity. The growth of aviculture represents almost half of the total increase in meat production along the decade.
Meat
The outlooks signal an increase by 13% in the worldwide production of meat in 2026 with respect to the base period (2014-2016), in comparison with the rise by 20% in the last decade. Fowl will be the main promoter of this growth. Its low production costs and price have made fowl the favourite for the producers and consumers in the developing countries.
Regarding pork, it is expected that its production rises, being this partly due to the adaptation, although slow, to the environmental and animal welfare requirements of the Chinese pig herd. According to the OECD-FAO, in 2016 a production of 127.52 million tonnes is expected, that equates to an increase by 9.1% with respect to the base period (2014-2016).
July 2017/ OECD-FAO.
http://www.agri-outlook.org/
