Global trade of all grains & oilseeds has grown by about 150 million tonnes in the last five years, thereby exceeding the growth of the previous five years by more than 50 percent. However, given the significant decline in prices, the value of these flows has dropped by more than 15 percent in the same period, to nearly USD 200 billion in 2014/15, according to Rabobank’s latest report ‘Grow with the Flow: 2016 Grain & Oilseed Trade Developments’.
“While US exports have been struggling in recent years, due to the strong US dollar, exports of emerging regions with weak currencies continue to boom. This includes Brazil—which has overtaken the US as the largest soybean exporter in the world and whose corn exports have tripled in the last five years—as well as the Black Sea Region, which continues to show strong export growth rates”, says Stefan Vogel, Global Strategist Grain and Oilseeds at Rabobank. “The EU has also, due to very good crops in recent years, grown its grain exports by about 50 percent in the last five years.”
Global imports are dominated, both in absolute and in growth terms, by Asia (43 percent of all imports), followed by the EU (12 percent), as well as North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South America and Central America, which each account for about 8 percent to 11 percent of imports, with Sub-Saharan Africa showing the strongest growth rates.The Americas-to-Asia trade is the key driving factor of G&O trade flows worldwide. Especially in China where in the last five years G&O imports have increased by almost 90 percent. Other destination areas like the Middle East, South-East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have also increased their role in the last five years.
Tuesday May 17, 2016/ Rabobank/ Netherlands.