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Robust outlook for global cereal supplies in 2016

World cereal production in 2016 is set to amount to 2 521 million tonnes, just 0.2 percent off last year's large output and the third-highest global performance on record.

Monday 11 April 2016 (2 years 5 months 11 days ago)
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World cereal production in 2016 is set to amount to 2 521 million tonnes, just 0.2 percent off last year's large output and the third-highest global performance on record, according to FAO's first forecast for the new season.

The small decline in 2016/17 world cereal production portended by FAO would largely result from a lower worldwide wheat production, which is now expected to amount to 712.7 million tonnes, some 20 million tonnes less than in 2015. The decline mostly reflects smaller plantings in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, both affected by dry weather.

Global output of coarse grains is projected at 1 313 million tonnes, up about 11 million tonnes from 2015, with expected increases in maize production more than offsetting declines for barley and sorghum.

Maize output is seen growing by 1.1 percent to 1 014 million tonnes, driven by recovering yields in the European Union and expanding plantings in the United States. At the same time, maize production is expected to fall in Southern Africa and Brazil, due to drought and adverse growing conditions associated with El Niño.

World rice production is predicted to recover with a return to normal weather conditions in northern-hemisphere Asia, where erratic rains have affected planting activity for the past two seasons. Global output, although impacted by unattractive prices, is predicted to rise 1.0 percent to 495 million tonnes.

International trade in cereals in 2016/17, however, is poised to decline for the second consecutive season - by 1.4 percent to 365 million tonnes - due to ample stockpiles and modest demand growth in many importing countries.

Global cereal utilization in 2016/17 is foreseen to grow only modestly, rising by around 1.0 percent to 2 547 million tonnes, according to very preliminary new estimates.

As utilization is anticipated to exceed production, cereal reserves would need to be drawn down to fill the gap. FAO's first forecast for world cereal stocks at the close of seasons ending in 2017 points to a likely 3.9 percent annual decline to 611 million tonnes. However, the resulting world cereal stock-to-utilization ratio would still approach 23 percent, well above the historical low of 20.5 percent registered in the 2007/2008 season.

Thursday April 7, 2016/ FAO.
http://www.fao.org

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