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While record piglet production is not projected for the EU in 2020, when combined with a further increase in slaughter weights, pork production is forecast to reach the highest level officially reported.
Domestic consumption is still falling in most EU Member States, most notably in Germany, leaving nearly four million metric tons (mmt), carcass weight equivalent (CWE), of pork available for exports. Accordingly, more than 16 percent of domestic production will be exported to third countries, with China being the focus of EU pork producers. Despite the increase in export demand, pork production is anticipated to be cut in Germany, France, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Based on new investments, Spain is expected to surpass Germany as the leading pork producer in the EU.
In response to the Chinese demand for pork, the EU sow herd expanded in 2019. While in 2019 demand for piglets picked up (but only after the breeding herd was cut by 380,000 sows). This shortage is expressed in piglet prices. Piglet prices have tripled since the end of 2018. The spread of African swine fever (ASF) in China since the summer of 2018 boosted demand for EU pork and, in turn, demand for piglets for fattening. Based on the exceptionally good market conditions for the swine breeding sector in 2019, the EU sow herd expanded by 216,000 head.
EU slaughter is forecast at 259.7 million head for 2020, a level previously exceeded in 2016 and 2018. In 2020, Spanish slaughter is forecast to surpass German slaughter. In 2019, a new plant began operation which, at full operation of 30,000 head per day, would become the largest pork slaughtering operation in the EU.
While EU pork production is expanding, domestic consumption is dwindling around 20.8 mmt CWE. Consumption is falling slightly in most countries, but significantly in Germany. Total domestic consumption is forecast to decline to about 20.3 mmt CWE in 2020, leaving 3.9 mmt CWE available for exports. In 2020, 16.1 percent of domestic production is expected to be exported to third countries. Not surprisingly will China be the main focus of the EU pork exporters.
March 2, 2020/ USDA/ United States
https://www.fas.usda.gov/
