According to European Commission "Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2016 and 2017", in 2016, EU pork exports are expected to expand further but at a slower pace (3%) due to increased competition and availabilities in USA and Brazil. Because of the development of the Russian pork production, the sluggish economic situation and the overhaul by other suppliers, EU exports towards Russia are not expected to resume completely even if the sanitary and economic import bans were to be lifted. A WTO ruling on the sanitary ban is expected in April 2016. In the meantime, the assumption that the sanitary ban will remain in place for 2016 and 2017 is retained , blocking all exports to Russia
EU consumption of pigmeat reached 32.5 kg per capita in 2015, almost 1 kg up compared to 2014. Following the prospects of EU production and export, this level of consumption is expected to decrease slightly in 2016 and stabilise in 2017, more or less in line with the trend over the last ten years.
Concerning production, while certain producers reduce production because of unprofitable margins, despite the affordable and stable feed prices, others try to cover their (recent) investment costs and compensate the lower price by increasing production. Overall, this would result in a stabilisation of pigmeat production in 2016, while a slight increase of less than 1% is expected in 2017.
March 2016/ DG-Agriculture/ European Union.