Overall productivity is expected to continue rising, as fertility rates and feed conversion ratios improve, thanks to the extension of improvements in genetics and production systems. By the end of the outlook period, in a context of declining domestic demand, EU pigmeat production is expected to decrease slightly ( -0.2 % per year).
World import demand for pigmeat is expected to grow but more slowly than in the previous decade. A rate of 0.7 % per year is expected in the outlook period (+724 000 t in total), reaching 8.7 million t by 2030. Significant growth is likely in two major EU trade partners in Asia: the Philippines (+155 000 t) and Vietnam (+112 000 t)
If Chinese demand for EU pork rises considerably due to the impact of ASF in China, the outlook for 2019 would change as EU prices rise and production follows. On the other hand, if further ASF outbreaks occur in the EU, particularly if any of the main exporter countries are affected, EU trade flows could be considerably disrupted.
It is assumed that Russia will continue to ban imports of EU pork products until the end of 2019. However, even if the ban is lifted, the country’s ambitious self - sufficiency targets and its decreased purchasing power will lead to lower imports from the EU. Russia’s self - sufficiency ratio has already risen from 79 % in 2013 to 91 % in 2018. Moreover, since December 2017, Russia has also banned imports of Brazilian pork over concerns that its meat contained the growth promoter ractopamine. This was despite Brazil having a 90% share in Russian pork imports in 2017. Russia is thus practically self - sufficient in 2018. Russia partially lifted this latest ban only in November 2018, allowing five Brazilian suppliers to resume shipments. However, it still excludes the bigger players. US pigmeat production is rapidly increasing and thus its export availability. Given the compe titive US prices, the US is expected to increase its share in world exports while the EU’s decreases slightly. Brazil’s production is expected to grow even faster than the US, but growth will mainly feed its domestic market and its participation in interna tional trade will remain at current levels. EU exports are expected to grow slowly, reaching almost 2.7 million t at the end of the outlook period. This would account for around 30% of world pigmeat trade, while the US will account for up to one third.
EU consumption expected to fall slowly EU pigmeat consumption per capita fell sharply in 2012 - 2013 when high prices weakened the competitiveness of pork compared to other meats. Since then, consumption recovered and remained above 32 kg per capita per yea r, with some fluctuations depending on availability levels. In 2018, with high availability, consumption should increase to 32.5 kg. In the longer run, per capita consumption should start to decline slowly to 31.6 kg by 2030, as pigmeat loses out to poultr y meat. Differences between per capita consumption in the EU 15 and the EU - N13 are expected to persist, at 30.5 kg and 36.4 kg, respectively, in 2030.
Thursday December 6, 2018/ DG Agri/ European Union.