The risk that African swine fever is endemic in Georgia, Armenia and Russian Federation has increased from moderate to high since 2010, when EFSA carried out its last risk assessment, particularly due to challenges in outbreak control in the backyard production sector. In addition, the risk that ASFV will spread further into unaffected areas from these countries, mainly through movement of contaminated pork, infected pigs or contaminated vehicles, has remained high.
In Ukraine and Belarus, the risk for ASF endemicity was considered moderate. Although only few outbreaks have been reported, which have been stamped out, only limited activities are ongoing to facilitate early detection of secondary spread. Further, the experts judged that there is a continuous risk of ASFV re-introduction from the Russian Federation, due to transboundary movements of people, pork or infected wild boar. The number of backyard farms is greatest in the west of Ukraine and westwards spread of ASFV could result in an infected area near the EU border, difficult to control. In Georgia, Armenia and the Russian Federation, the risk for endemicity of ASF in the wild boar population is considered moderate, mainly due to spill-over from the domestic pig population, whereas in Ukraine and Belarus this was considered to be low. In those areas in the Russian Federation where wild boar density is high, this risk may be higher. Furthermore, the experts judged that intensive hunting pressure in affected wild boar populations may increase the risk for spread, possibly with severe implications across international borders.
Monday April 7, 2014/ EFSA/ European Union.