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Corn and soybeans: Forecasts for the 2022/2023 season USDA - April 2023

As expected, the agency made further cuts in estimated production volumes for Argentina's crops, while for the other countries, there were no significant changes. The first forecasts for the 2023/24 season will be released in the May 12 report.

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on April 11 are presented:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1144.5 million tons (Mt), a 6.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.0 Mt).

For the United States, production would be around 348.8 Mt, down 8.9% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 1.7%, achieving 277.2 Mt. The European Union would see a 25.8% decrease with 53.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, would see a decrease of 35.9%.

For Brazil, the projection of 125 Mt remained unchanged, representing a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season, while for Argentina, production was again cut back sharply to only 37 Mt, representing a 25.3% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season.

World corn exports would decrease by 15.5%, from 205.7 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 173.8 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by decreases in the European Union (-63.3%), the United States (-25.1%), Argentina (-27.3%), and Ukraine (-5.5%).

South America's exportable supply showed significant changes, increasing by 3.6% for Brazil in this new season, with 50 Mt, while Argentina's exports would decrease by 27.3%, reaching only 25 Mt.

China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt), while the European Union is expected to increase its imports by 23.8% with 24.5 Mt.

Global ending stocks would fall by 3.8% to 295.3 Mt. Stocks in Ukraine, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China would fall by 77.1%, 28.5%, 9.5%, 2.6%, and 0.9%, respectively, while in Brazil, Egypt, and Iran, stocks would grow by 83.1%, 15.4%, and 13.7%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season would increase by 2.7% over the previous season, from 359.8 to 369.6 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 18.0% for Brazil, which would reach 154 Mt, while Argentina is projected to fall by 38.5% with 27.0 Mt.

Paraguay would increase its production by 139.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 cycle.

In this new report, the U.S. crop is expected to reach 116.4 Mt, which represents a 4.2% drop compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

The export activity would be led by Brazil with 92.7 Mt, growing by 17.2% compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 54.8 Mt, which represents a decrease of 6.6% compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 3.4 Mt, which would mean an increase of 18.8% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

China would import 96 Mt, up 4.8% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

Ending stocks of the oilseed would increase by 0.6% at the global level, reaching 100.3 Mt. However, for the United States, Argentina, and the European Union, their stocks would fall by 23.4%, 24.3%, and 8.7% respectively, while for Brazil and China, they would increase by 18.7% and 12.4%.