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Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - August 2023

The world corn production forecast was cut by 11 million tons from July's report. For soybeans, crop estimates were reduced by approximately 2.5 million due to lower expected U.S. production.

Graph 1. Crop projection for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2023/24 season versus 2022/23. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA,

Corn

World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1213.5 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.4% compared to the 2022/23 season (1151.8 Mt).

United States production is expected to be around 383.8 Mt, 10.1% higher than the previous year (348.8 Mt), while China's harvest will decrease by 0.1% to 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 14.3% increase with 59.7 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.5 Mt, will see an increase of 1.9%.

Brazil's production is expected to reach 129 Mt, which represents a 4.4% decrease compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

World exports of corn are forecast to increase by 10.5%, from 177.5 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 196.2 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain, reaching 52.1 Mt, an increase of 26.2% over the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with an increase of 84.1% in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 55 Mt, representing a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% with 24 Mt.

World ending stocks would increase by 4.4% to 311.0 Mt. For the United States, stocks should increase by 51.2%, while for Brazil and China, stocks should decrease by 25.6% and 2.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 8.9% over the previous season, from 369.7 to 402.8 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

Paraguay should increase its production by 10.5% with respect to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt and returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

This new report estimates the United States will produce a crop of 114.5 Mt, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

Export activity should be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, growing by 2.7% compared to the previous season (94.0 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, which represents a 7.8% decrease compared to the last harvest (53.9 Mt).