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Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - July 2023

In this new update, the projection for world soybean production was cut by more than 5 million tons compared to the June report, due to a lower planted area in the United States. Estimates for corn were slightly higher than in the previous report.

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on July 12 are presented:

Corn

World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1224.5 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.4% compared to the 2022/23 season (1150.7 Mt).

United States production is expected to reach 389.1 Mt, up 11.6% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 1.0% to 280.0 Mt. The European Union is forecast to grow by 19.7% with 63.4 Mt, while Ukraine, with 25 Mt, will see a decrease of 7.4%.

Brazil's production is estimated at 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 3.0% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

World corn exports are forecast to increase by 12.3%, from 176.6 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 198.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second-largest exporter of the grain, reaching 53.3 Mt, an increase of 27.3% over the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with an increase of 84.1% in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 55 Mt, which represents a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 27.8% compared to the previous season (18.0 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% with 24 Mt.

World ending stocks are expected to increase by 6.0% to 314.1 Mt. In fact, for the United States, stocks are expected to increase by 61.4%, while stocks in Brazil and China are expected to decrease by 16.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to increase by 9.6% compared to the previous season, from 369.7 to 405.3 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 13.6% with respect to the 2022/23 season (8.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, thus returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

This new report estimates a U.S. crop of 117.0 Mt, an increase of only 0.6% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

The export activity would be led by Brazil with 96.5 Mt, growing by 2.7% compared to the previous season (94.0 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 50.3 Mt, a figure that represents a 6.6% decrease compared to the last harvest (53.9 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 21.1% with respect to the 2022/23 season (3.8 Mt).

China is expected to import 99 Mt, a volume similar to that of the previous season.

The soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 17.6% globally to 121.0 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.

333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/