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The Canadian swine herd is forecast to contract 5% to begin 2024 as a result of reductions in slaughter capacity in Quebec and a reduced sow herd. Production declines will be most significant in Eastern Canada as the result of the closure of an Olymel slaughter plant as the company cuts production levels.
A slight reduction for the 2024 pig crop is expected following an estimated 2% decline in 2023 due to smaller sow numbers, but fertility will be slightly higher as Ontario recovers from 2023 PEDv issues.
Live exports to the United States will be reduced as producers make adjustments to the reductions in slaughter capacity.
Expanding sow processing in Western Canada will increase sow slaughter numbers and a reduction in cull sow exports. However, sow processing relative to cull sow volumes will remain limited, and the United States will remain integral for processing Canadian cull sows.
Weanling trade will also decline with the smaller pig crop.
Pork production in 2024 is forecast to lower slightly from 2023 (2030 vs. 2040 thousand metric tons) as the closure of the Olymel plant concludes at the end of December 2023.
Pork exports will be further reduced from 2024 on lowered production and sustained domestic demand.
September 25, 2023/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.go
