Post revised upward the forecast for pork production in 2012 by nearly 3 percent. Post projections reflect the current optimism of the pork industry for a sustained, strong domestic consumption combined with a recovery in the export market.
The major factor of concern to hog producers is the recent increase in feed prices, mostly for corn. According to the association of pork producers, the increase in corn prices could squeeze their margins, but the federal government will likely interfere in the market with subsidized corn auctions to protect the industry.
Post forecasts pork exports to rebound by 5 percent in 2012 as demand from major importers is expected to increase (Hong Kong, Ukraine, Angola and Singapore). Brazilian pork exporters are also strategically focused on two new markets: China and the United States. The first pork shipments to China occurred in January 2012 and totaled 52 metric tons. Trade sources believe that exports to China will only be significant in 2013. Trade sources also expect that exports to the United States could pick up at the second half of 2012. The major uncertainties in 2012 are Argentina with their new import restrictions and the slow relisting of Brazilian plants to export to the Russian Federation.
Post slightly revised pork export estimates for 2011 to include final trade numbers.
Thursday March 1, 2012/ GAIN-USDA/ United States.