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Australian pork production in 2020 is predicted to reach 400,000 tons (CWE), nearly the same as last year’s level (398,000 tons). The combination of low pork prices and high feed prices last year resulted in a decline in swine numbers and a concomitant decline in pork production.
However, although feed prices have remained elevated, there has been a strong rise in swine and pork prices. For example, farmgate prices have risen from $2.50/kg a year ago to $4/kg, in part due to rising global prices in light of the African swine fever outbreak in China and increased import demand there. This has resulted in a return to profitability for many farmers and as a result, farmers have been rebuilding herds. The increase in swine numbers is expected to lead to a recovery in pork production later in 2020.
Australian pork imports are expected to decline from the record level of 269,000 tons (CWE) in 2019, but still remain at a high level at 240,000 tons (CWE). The major reason for this decline is that importers have built up large inventory, and this is expected to reduce import needs in 2020. The fresh pork market is supplied by local producers as biosecurity regulations prevent imports of fresh and chilled pork. Processed pork, which includes ham, bacon and small goods, is mainly supplied from processed frozen pork imports.
Pork exports are expected to remain largely steady in 2020 at 35,000 tons (CWE).
March 4, 2020/ USDA/ United States
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
