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African swine fever (ASF) has caused major herd losses and soaring pork prices in China in 2019. ASF is expected to continue to spread, but more slowly thanks to industry efforts and policy changes.
According to a report by Rabobank, ASF will reshape the development of China's hog supply chain in the coming years, shifting the structure toward larger-scale productions and contract farms which allows for better biosecurity and more organized supply chain arrangements.
Faster increases in hog production are predicted in the south and east of the country although restocking China's hog census to pre-ASF numbers could take five years or more.
Consumers have had to change their consumption patterns, adapting to the lack of fresh pork supply and will purchase more frozen and processed options. They are also likely to choose other protein sources; poultry shares are expected to grow by over 30% by 2025.
Supply chain participants from investors to retailers will be able to take advantage of pork's expanding market value. China's pork imports are expected to rise despite ASF.
November 2019 / Rabobank/China.
https://research.rabobank.com/
