According to USDA, FAS/Moscow anticipates the Russian swine herd to grow to 20.225 million head by the end of 2016, which is a 4 percent increase compared to swine inventories in January 2015. The Russian swine heard at large commercial plants has been growing over the last decade and the trend will most likely continue in 2016. Live swine imports and exports likely to remain low in 2015 and 2016 due to numerous restrictions related to veterinary issues.
FAS Moscow forecasts pork production to grow 5 percent over the revised 2015 level and reach 2.78 MMT in 2016. Several leading pork producers announced large investments in pork production that are expected to increase production capacity. FAS/Moscow forecasts pork imports to decline to 200,000 MT in 2016, a significant drop from 2015. Local pork producers will likely increase production further replacing imports, which remain relatively expensive due to the weak ruble and poor economic conditions in the near term. FAS/Moscow modified the 2015 pork import projections to 300,000 MT (CWE), which is still a 42 percent decline year - on - year (previous forecast was 60 percent import reduction). The correction was made mostly due to a decline in world pork prices.
Total pork consumption to reach 2.979 MMT in 2016 - a moderate 2 percent increase year - on - year. The negative effects of trade interruptions and price volatility in the pork market are expected to recede somewhat in 2016 as domestic producers are slated to supply more reasonably priced pork to the market. Consumer demand is also expected to shift back to pork from poultry once the economy passes the peak of the current crisis.
Friday September 4, 2015/ FAS-USDA/ United States.