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Beginning stocks of pigs in Ukraine was 5.84 million animals in 2020. Although Ukraine’s statistical data show an increase in swine numbers as of January 1, 2021, industry sources believe that this increase is likely to be short-lived. Ukrainian swine farmers have faced a significant surge in the cost of feed in late 2020. Pork prices continued to decline throughout 2020. Facing this price/cost squeeze, pork producers are likely to reverse their production plans and contract production in 2021.
Imports are expected to remain strong as demand for cheap pork offal for further processing (over half of all imports) remains in place. Ukraine’s imports of more expensive pork cuts have experienced slow growth, with bone-in ham and shoulder products leading this increase.
Pork consumption grew slightly in 2020 and is expected to remain on this upward trend in 2021. In 2020, the United States was able to resume pork exports to Ukraine for the first time since 2014, but the import volume has not yet been very significant. U.S. bone-in ham and shoulders compete with Canadian and EU imports both of which are imported under zero import duty Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs).
Due to the ASF situation, Ukrainian pork export possibilities remain very limited and are not expected to grow in 2021. Although exports grew a bit in 2020, the numbers remain small and volatile. The average Ukrainian cost of production for pork remains high, limiting the industry’s competitiveness on the world market. Exports are limited to a small number of countries that agreed to grant market access despite the ASF presence. The major Middle Eastern trade hub – the Emirates - unexpectedly became Ukraine’s largest export destination, with Hong Kong in second place.
March 9, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
