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According to the report published by FranceAgriMer "Les filières animales terrestres et aquatiques Bilan 2015 Perspectives 2016" (The land and sea animals sectors. Balance 2015 Prospects 2016), in agreement with the SSP analyses and bearing in mind the situation of the French pig farmers, the production could undergo a slight decrease in 2016. In a context in which the supply in the EU market will still be rather high, especially during the first half of 2016, it is expected that the balance between supply and demand in the Europan market will still be fragile, and the production price of pork could remain relatively low. In France, the return to balance of the market will need more time. While expecting a decrease in the European production during the second half of 2016, the prices in France, as well as in the EU, could rise. Nevertheless, it is expected that the rise for the full year will be rather moderate.
The European production will show an upward trend in 2016 (probably 1%) in comparison with 2015. It will be lead by Spain (+2.2% according to the sow census in June 2015) and The Netherlands (+0.6%), whilst according to the sow census in June 2015, the production will fall in Germany and Poland (- 2.7%, -6.1%). In this context, the production cycle peak should be reached by the end of the first half of 2016, and the decrease in production could only happen during the fourth trimester of 2016.
In the context of a well supplied European market and a slowing down of the international demand (a deceleration of the economic growth in Asia, a relatively high level of imports, the Russian market still unreachable for Europe, prices with a high decrease in US and Brazil that will resemble those of the EU), the price of production should not grow during the first half of 2016. A lower European production during the second half of 2016 could favour the resumption of the prices of production.
February 2016/ FranceAgriMer/ France.
http://www.franceagrimer.fr
