Swine inventories will continue to decline in 2019 because of low feed stocks resulting from the 2018 drought. 2018 pork production should increase by four percent due to higher slaughter.
After an increase by 50 percent in 2017, gilt and sow imports from Denmark will slow in 2018 due to less interest by breeders. Piglet imports from Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands are increasing and will augment insufficient domestic production.
The number of ASF cases in eastern and central Poland is hampering swine production growth, particularly due to import bans on Polish pork imposed by some trading partners.
In January 2018, swine inventories were one percent higher over the previous year. Pig inventories grew throughout the first half of 2018. June 2018 inventories were four percent higher than June 2017 inventories. Post expects that decreasing farm - gate swine prices and growing feeds cost will reduce swine inventories in the second half of 2018, and first half of 2019. During the third quarter of 2018 (Jul - Sep), average farm - gate swine price s decreased by ten percent over the same period of 2017. Post estimates that farm-gate hog prices will decline during the last quarter of 2018 because of growing domestic pork stocks stemming from lower demand for pork in Europe. Lower demand - driven prices, as well as higher, drought - related feed costs, will reduce production through the first half of 2019.
Post estimates that swine slaughter in 2018 will be four percent higher over 2017. The average slaughter weight in 2018 will also in crease by an estimated five percent over 2017 because of hog procurement delays by farmers in the ASF - affected areas. Post forecasts that 2019 slaughter weights will be consistent with 2018. On - farm slaughter in 2018 will remain at seven percent of total slaughter, unchanged from 2017. Average farm - gate prices for hogs in September 2018 were PLN 4.69 ($1.23) per kilogram, 11 percent below September 2017. Trade In 2017, Poland imported 6.8 million live pigs, seven percent more than in 2016. Denmark w as the largest supplier of pigs to Poland (81 percent), followed by Germany and the Netherlands. In 2017, piglet imports were supplemented by imported breeding gilts and sows. In 2017, Poland imported 925,000 head of breeding stock, a 25 - percent increase over the previous year. Over 90 percent of breeding stock was imported from Denmark. In the first seven months of 2018 imports of swine increased by 11 percent, however, imports of breeding animals dropped by 43 percent due to deteriorating profitabilit y of swine production
Vendredi, 21 novembre 2018/ GAIN-USDA/ United States.