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After a record slaughter and pork production level achieved in 2021, USDA forecasts pork production in the European Union to fall this year. The surge of Chinese demand for pork in 2020 brought optimism to the sector, which initiated an increase in the supply of piglets in 2020. Due to the finishing time, and disruptions at slaughterhouses due to the coronavirus pandemic, a large share were slaughtered in 2021.
With slowing Chinese demand, and rising feed, energy, and labor costs in 2021, the outlook for the sector deteriorated, and the sow herd was cut by 3.6% to a new record low. Major cuts are forecast for Germany and Poland. Even in Spain, which has shown steady growth in slaughter since 2013, a leveling-off of slaughter is anticipated in 2022. The lower supply of piglets will eventually lead to a reduction in the slaughter of hogs and reduced pork production.
While slaughter is not expected to decline in nearly half of the EU’s Member States, a decline is expected among the bloc’s leading producers (Spain, Germany, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium). Among the main producers, France is the lone exception. French slaughter is forecast to increase slightly in 2022 as ending stocks are expected to have increased in 2021. However, France is expected to realize a lower 2022 pig crop.
Taken as a whole, EU slaughter is projected to decrease to 247 million head and pork production to 23.3 MMT CWE. Ending inventories in 2022 are forecast at 140 million head.
However, based on high commercial stocks developed in 2021, the EU swine sector has the volume available to sustain or even increase pork exports this year. Through its
export diversification efforts, the EU will not be as reliant on Chinese demand. If export demand falls short, however, it is anticipated EU pork stocks will further build, pressuring prices and profit margins.
March 2, 2022/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
