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Since February 2022, EU pigmeat prices rapidly recovered. However, increasing concerns for the environment, reduced export prospects, sustained high input costs, and African Swine Fever (ASF) push production down. The production is due to decline strongly in Germany (-14%), Italy (-7.5%), as well as in Poland (-14%).
As Belgium and the Netherlands both discuss similar regulations to reduce the pressure on the environment, production is already expected to adjust in anticipation (-3% in Belgium and stabilization in the Netherlands). By contrast, Spain – EU’s biggest producer – is likely to continue increasing its production by 3% in 2022. Overall, pigmeat production is expected to decrease by 4.7% in 2022. In 2022, EU domestic use may decrease by 3.3%, which would average at 31.7 kg per capita.
As China continues to restore its pigmeat production capacity, EU exports to that destination resume pre-ASF levels and are expected to decrease by 40% in 2022, reaching a level just above that of 2016. In the meanwhile, EU exports to the UK continue improving. They may increase by 10% in 2022, almost reaching their 2019 level.
EU pigmeat exports to other overseas destinations are due to increase in 2022: +20% to Japan, the Philippines, the US, and Australia, for instance. Overall, EU pigmeat exports are expected to decrease by 9.6% in 2022, which means they would still reach a level 19% higher than the 2016-18 average. EU pigmeat imports from the UK are expected to increase strongly in 2022, by 34%. As a consequence, total EU pigmeat imports are due to increase by 28%, reaching a level still 21% lower than the 2016-18 average.
July 7, 2022/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu
