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Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - March 2024

World corn production estimates were lowered by 2.3 million tons compared to the February report. For soybeans, estimates were again cut for Brazil.

Graph 1. Harvest projections for the main world producers of corn and soybeans - 2023/24 campaign versus 2022/23. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS – USDA.

The highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 8 are presented:

Corn

World corn production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to reach 1230.2 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.3% compared to the 2022/23 season (1157.5 Mt).

United States production is estimated at 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt). China is expected to increase its harvest by 4.2% to reach 288.8 Mt. The European Union should see 14.7% growth with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 29.5 Mt, would see an increase of 9.3%.

Brazil's production is expected to reach 129 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season. Argentina's harvest is forecast to reach 56 Mt, thus growing 55.6% compared to the last season.

Global corn exports are expected to increase by 12.3%, going from 180.2 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 202.3 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the largest exporter with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly from Argentina, with a 68.0% increase this season to reach 42.0 Mt. For Brazil, 52 Mt are estimated, representing a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is forecast to import 22.0 Mt, which is 5.0% less than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

Final stocks are expected to increase by 6.0% worldwide, reaching 319.6 Mt. The United States stocks should grow by 59.7%, while Brazil's should decrease by 46.2%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase by 5.0% compared to the previous season, going from 378.1 to 396.9 Mt.

Estimates for South American harvests show a decrease of 4.3% for Brazil, which would reach 155 Mt, while an increase of 100.0% is projected for Argentina with 50.0 Mt.

Paraguay is forecast to increase its production by 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (10.1 Mt), reaching a harvest of 10.3 Mt.

This new report estimates a harvest of 113.3 Mt for the United States, representing a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season when 116.2 Mt were harvested.

Brazil would lead export activity with 103.0 Mt, an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt). The United States export volume is estimated at 46.8 Mt, representing a decrease of 13.6% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

Argentina's exports are projected at 4.6 Mt, representing an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

China is forecast to import 105 Mt, a volume 0.5% higher than the previous season.

Final soybean stocks are anticipated to increase by 11.9% globally, reaching 114.3 Mt. This would be supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, the United States, and China.