The executive president of the ABPA, Mr. Francisco Turra, has analysed the evolution of the fowl and pig sectors in Brazil in 2016 and the forecasts for 2017. According to his opinion, the economic crisis that has affected Brazil has generated unemployment and a drop in consumption, affecting the animal protein production.
The price of maize ends 2016 with prices under 40 reales/60 kg, a price significantly lower than that seen some months ago, and that exceeded 60 reales. The Paraguayan and Argentinian supply and the recent authorisation for the export to USA must reduce the pressure on its price next year.
Another thing to bear in mind in the sector is that the real/USD exchange rate showed an improvement in the third trimester, reaching, in certain moments, 3.50 reales per USD, a value deemed ideal for the exporters of fowl and pork. Nevertheless, other factors such as the lack of financing and the high interest rates have been an obstacle for establishing deals in the fowl and pig sectors.
In the case of pork, the high foreign demand has encouraged the increase in exports, alleviating the lower domestic demand.
The forecasts pointed out by the ABPA show an increase by 2.4% in the total production of the sector, that is expected to reach 3.7 million tonnes versus the 3.6 million tonnes produced in 2015.
The domestic pork supply dropped by 3.5%, with a total of 2.9 million tonnes in 2016 (3.1 million tonnes in 2015). The decrease in the supply has had an impact in the annual consumption per capita, that reached 14.4 kg versus 15.2 kg in 2015.
The boost in pork production should end this year with an increase in exports by 30%, reaching 720,000 tonnes exported (555,000 tonnes in 2015).
For 2017, the ABPA's forecasts show an increase of up to 2% in production and of up to 5% in exports, because the opening of the South Korean market (one of the greatest pork importers in the world) is expected. There are also good prospects regarding the authorisation of new plants for exporting to China and the authorisation for the direct sales of Brazilian pork in South Africa.
Tuesday, 13 December 2016/ ABPA/ Brazil.