At the beginning June, the pig price in Spain rose firmly and decisively. In the month's four market sessions we have seen the following increases: + 0.010 €, + 0.013 €, + 0.005 €, and + 0.000 € for an accumulated total of 0.028 € / kg. The imbalance between supply and demand has imposed its law. In yesterday's session of the Spanish leading market (Mercolleida), the price stayed stagnant, a sign of fatigue. The rise on Thursday, June 19, will probably be the last of the summer. As we have commented in previous months, pork prices cannot go up. Moreover, during the course of the month, it has become clear that there is a tremendous struggle to sell pork: no one wants to freeze with pigs being so expensive, and pork is being discounted as much as necessary. It is particularly difficult to sell loins. In addition, the euro is very strong against the dollar and the yen, which means exports to third countries are limping along...
The slaughterhouse is between a rock and a hard place. With the arrival of the heat wave, animal growth will slow down, aggravating the lack of supply. It is very clear that slaughter must be reduced; if the pigs are not there, it is useless to try to find them anywhere. With pig prices going up or rebounding and pork prices going down, it doesn't take a genius to conclude that the slaughterhouse margin continues to degrade. A devilish concatenation of negative factors is occurring with unfortunate consequences for those who slaughter and butcher. It's all happening very fast.

In 2023, from April to July, pigs in Spain were worth 2.02 € / kg live. The slaughterhouses' economic results during these four months were more than a deficit; they were catastrophic. This dark period is known in professional circles and in slang as the “Big Bad”. The current situation is probably a replica of what happened two years ago.
Notwithstanding all of the above, life goes on. The market obeys economic laws that are impossible to control. And someday things will return to normal. Slaughterhouses will have to reduce their activity to adapt to the supply shortage, and the price of pigs will fall because such losses are unsustainable over time.
On the other side of the scale is production: its results are very promising and motivate growing as much as possible through farm acquisitions or building new facilities where feasible. A sort of bubble is occurring in the price of farm places. It is becoming more and more difficult to open new farms in Spain, and the existing ones are obviously becoming a scarce and precious commodity.
We have entered into summer; the heatwave seems guaranteed (with above-average temperatures so far), and there is no glimpse or inkling of any factor that might influence even a slight change in the current status quo. The price of pigs may not be rising, but it is proving to be very firm. The difficult period for the slaughter and cutting industry will persist. We do not envision any significant change (read decrease in pig prices) until the end of August.
In Germany, the competition authorities have blocked the sale of three Vion plants to Tönnies, arguing that it would create an oligopoly (Tönnies would hold an excessively dominant position); it remains to be seen what will become of these plants. Nine months after the supposed sale, they’ll have to reverse course. The difficulties persist in a situation riddled with uncertainties.
The EU as a whole struggles to export to third countries. Pigs in Brazil are currently worth between 1.34 and 1.31 € / kg live, almost 50 euro cents less than in Spain. In Canada, they are scandalously cheaper, equivalent to 1.21 € / kg live. In the United States, there are fewer pigs than in other years, and its domestic market shows signs of robustness with pork on track for a rally of price increases. The price of its pigs is aligned with that of most of our European competitors, always one step below the Spanish price. Spanish pork, and by extension, European pork, has a very difficult time finding a place in world markets. Brazil is gaining market share in many Asian countries at Spain's expense.
As we’ve mentioned before, the future of our exports lies much more in the EU and other European third countries than in Southeast Asia. Consider this statement an axiom: to us, it feels as inescapable and inevitable as the force of gravity.
To conclude, we will quote the renowned Brazilian writer Mario de Andrade, "Happiness is so at odds with life that, when we're in it, we forget that we're living."
Guillem Burset