According to FAS-USDA report, during the past twelve months, carcass and piglet prices have gone from record lows during December 2015-April 2016 back to the five-year average. This price recovery is solely caused by the surge of Chinese import demand for pork.
During the first half of 2016, EU pork exports totaled 1,637,000 metric tons, which is 584,000 metric tons more than shipped during the first half of 2015. Exports to China and Hong Kong alone rose by 517,000 metric tons, to a total of 823,000 metric tons. These volumes underline the dependency of the EU pork sector on the Chinese market. This is amplified by the saturated domestic market. Chinese demand for EU pork is expected to weaken and carcass prices are forecast to remain at about the current level during the remainder of 2016. This will affect the uptake of piglets, and reduce slaughter during the second half of next year. However, significant cuts are not expected. Furthermore, abundant feed supplies will counterbalance the lower slaughter and will result in sustained pork production levels and exportable supplies through 2017.
Tuesday September 6, 2016/ FAS-USDA/ United States.