USA - US plantings and stocks report: unexpected movements in stock levels

With tight stocks and strong demand for both maize and soyabeans, the US spring planting has been deemed “the fight for acres” as both prices have needed to be attractive for both crops to receive planted areas to replenish stock levels in the 2011/12 season. However, prices have been much more supportive of the maize market over recent weeks and today’s report suggests that US farmers are to plant more maize for harvest 2011 much at the expense of soyabeans.

Maize planted area is forecast at 37.3Mha, some 1.6Mha above the previous season’s plantings; this level is well in the range of 36.8Mha to 37.4Mha estimated by trade and private analysts. The market will now focus heavily on growing weather for US maize to ensure that good yields are achieved with July being the key yield-forming month.

For soyabeans, the planted are for harvest 2011 is forecast lower than a year ago at 31Mha, down from 31.32Mha planted for harvest 2010. With lower plantings and low US stocks, the soyabean markets will remain a volatile market as participants will know that the market has little stocks to replenish any increase in demand or losses in supply.

The wheat area planted in the US for harvest 2011 is forecast to increase as farmers react to the recent period of higher prices. Total wheat area is forecast to rise to 23.5Mha from 21.7Mha a year ago; spring wheat accounts for 5.8Mha (5.5Mha 2010 harvest) and winter wheat 16.7Mha (15.1Mha ’10).