The expansion in global pork production will decelerate over the next decade, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025. China will provide 50%, or 7 Mt, of the additional output, although the overall volume is significantly lower relative to the years of persistent oversupply over the past decade, at 11 Mt. China's pig herd declined over the past three years (a drop of 25 million pigs between 2012 and 2015) as a result of consolidation in the sector, combined with the implementation of China’s Environment Protection Act that restricts pig production in the south of China favoring pig production transfer to the north of China. In North America, after recovering from the detrimental effects of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv), will contribute 14% of the additional pork supply. Strong production growth rates over the outlook period are also seen in Brazil, the Russian Federation and Viet Nam. Production in the European Union will grow marginally as foreign markets, including lower import demand from China and the Russian Federation, are not encouraging the sector to expand.
Pigmeat consumption on a per capita basis remains relatively stable over the outlook period with most developed countries’ consumption reaching saturated levels. Within developing countries, however, per capita pigmeat consumption continues to expand with growth in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Pigmeat consumption has indeed grown rapidly over the past few years in Latin America, fuelled by increased domestic production, improved quality, and favourable relative prices that have positioned pork as one of the favoured meats along with poultry meat.
Monday July 4, 2016/ FAO.