Accordng to the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income to 2025, following a strong recovery in 2014 and 2015, pigmeat production is expected to expand by less than 2 % by 2025 as compared with 2015. In a context of slowly falling internal consumption, pigmeat exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by sustained world demand and slightly improving prices.
World import demand for pigmeat is expected to remain strong, but to grow more slowly than in the previous decade ( by 2 % rather than 3.1 % a year). It is expected to reach 8.8 million t by 2025, supported by sustained demand , mostly from existing EU trade partners in Asia and Sub - Saharan Africa . Much of this growth can be attributed specifically to China, where import demand is set to more than double between 2015 and 2025 (equivalent to almost 650 000 t of additional imports). This figure is partly inflated by trade shifts from re-exports from Hong Kong to direct exports to China, while the rise in imports by Vietnam might indicate an enhanced capacity there to stor e produce before it is transported to China. Although it is assumed Russia will continue to ban imports of pig products for sanitary and economic reasons until the end of 2016, the country’s ambitious self-sufficiency targets and the decreased purchasing power will lead in any case to lower imports from the EU after the ban is lifted. In addition, in order to secure supply in the absence of banned EU and USA meat, Russia has been looking for other suppliers, some of whose exports it had previously restricted, such as South Korea (whose exports had been restricted since 2010, due to foot and mouth disease) and Brazil (subject to restrictions since 2011, due to the use of ractopamine). EU volumes that, under normal market conditions, would have gone to Russia have found their way to other destinations, mainly Japan, South Korea, the Balkan countries and the Philippines. Driven by consumption developments, the Philippines, a market with over 100 million consumers, doubled its imports from the EU to 122000 t in 2014. Imports are expected to continue at this level. The U SA, the EU’s main competitor on the world market, is expected to recover from the outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in 2013, and gradually increase its pigmeat supply. After dropping slightly , US pigmeat exports are likely to retu rn to growth over the outlook period, encouraged by a favourable USD/EUR exchange - rate development, increasing market share slightly while the EU 's share remains stable. In view of the above, EU exports are expected to increase by almost 27 % (or 550 000 t ) between 2015 and 2025, to reach around 2.6 million t at the end of the outlook period. This also reflects the EU pig market 's increasing dependency on exports.
Pigmeat production in the EU is expected to increase in Germany, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands, whereas in Denmark and Italy a slight decline is expected. In total, the seven countries will increase production by about 300 000 t (+1.6 % ) over the period 2015 - 2025, while the production in the rest of the EU will increase only slightly. The projected production growth is sensitive to the base year (here 2015), as e.g. pigmeat production in Spain and Poland already rose by more than 10 % in the period 2013 - 2015, whereas in the same period the increase was less than 2 % in the other EU Member States. Given that domestic demand is declining, additional production growth in th e EU implies that the EU pig sector becomes more dependent on third countries markets.
December 2015/ DG Agriculture/ European Union.