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The USDA predicts 2022 pork production in the Philippines will reach 1.025 million MT because of increased herd repopulation efforts. African swine fever (ASF) remains the primary constraint in the hog sector. New ASF outbreaks will also dampen recovery efforts. Pork production in 2021 is expected to total 1.0 million MT.
Total pork production declined 23.4% from January to October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. The Central Luzon region, historically the Philippines’s top pork producer, plunged 71%, heavily affected by ASF.
In response to the government increasing the pork Minimum Access Volume allocation and lowering tariff rates, pork belly prices started to decline from May to October 2021. By October 2021, pork prices were at a recent low of P341 ($6.82) per kg. By November, however, pork prices started to increase. This rise can be attributed to several factors: 1) high gasoline prices; 2) increasing demand towards the Christmas holiday season; and 3) policies that prevented the full utilization of pork MAV and disruptive meat labeling requirements.
The 2022 pork import forecast is 375,000 MT, in line with current trade flows and the Philippine policies on MAV and tariffs scheduled to expire in 2022. Imports for 2021, however, are expected to be 460,000 MT. From January to September 2021, USDA projects that pork imports reached 386,000 MT, up 244% year-over-year but slowing from the pace of trade of earlier months.
December 10, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
