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The report Mexico: Livestock and Products Semi-annual 2025, published by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), presents a detailed analysis of the Mexican swine industry's performance, highlighting moderate growth in domestic production and stable demand for pork and yellow corn imports for animal feed, mainly from the United States.
Domestic production and consumption
According to the report, swine production is forecast to increase by 1% to 22.4 million head, driven by favorable prices, lower production costs, and greater sector integration. In 2024, production was flat at 22.2 million head, constrained by viral diseases (PRRS and PED) and low prices during the first half of the year.
Pig slaughter will also grow slightly, with a projected total of 21.5 million head, mainly due to the dynamics of the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector.
Pork consumption will continue to rise, estimated at 2.83 million tons (carcass weight), due to population growth, increased disposable income, and a positive perception of pork as a healthy and versatile protein, especially in the central and southern parts of the country. In 2024, consumption grew by 5%, as pork is the second most accessible meat after chicken.
Imports and foreign trade
Despite domestic production growth, pork imports will remain stable at around 1.45 million tons, given that domestic production still fails to meet total market demand, especially that of the HRI sector. The United States will continue to be the main supplier with a share of over 85%, followed by Canada (11%) and Brazil (2%), the latter benefiting from an anti-inflationary presidential decree that allows tariff-free imports.
Imports of yellow corn for animal feed, essential for the Mexican pork sector, will continue to be close to 70%, mainly from the United States.
Exports will grow by 2% in 2025, driven by a weaker peso that improves competitiveness. Japan, the United States, and South Korea are the main destinations. Mexico focuses its exports on high value-added products, mainly to Asian markets.
Strategic factors and challenges
The Mexican swine industry continues to face challenges such as pressure from viral diseases, but improvements in biosecurity, genetics, and production management underpin the sector's recovery and expansion.
The growth of domestic production, the stability of imports, and the growing demand for differentiated products reflect a dynamic and consolidating domestic market that requires Mexican producers to innovate and improve their quality and productivity standards.
March 3, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/
