Buffered by substantially higher carry-in stocks, the decline in total availabilities is forecast to be less steep. Because of the downward revision in the production forecast and an increased consumption estimate, world stocks of grain at the end of 2010/11 are placed 9m. tons lower than before, at 360m. The past month’s sharp rise in international grain prices has further reduced the outlook for global trade in 2010/11, now forecast to fall to 232m. tons, 2m. Less than projected in July and 7m. below the 2009/10 estimate.
Improved crop prospects in the US and in Africa lift the forecast of world maize production in 2010/11 to a record 829m. tons (809m.), up by 6m. from last month. The global area is expected to be up by 1.7% from last year, with the average yield now expected to match that of 2009/10.
Increases in feed, industrial and food use lift the forecast of world maize consumption by 7m. tons, to a record 837m. With maize increasingly price competitive against alternative feed grains, the feed use forecast is raised by 3m. tons from July, to 486m. (479m.). Despite a forecast record crop, world maize stocks are forecast to decline to a four-year low at the end of 2010/11, at 135m. tons, down 8m. from the previous year.