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The global sow herd is projected to decline in 2026, as producers face heightened uncertainty. While tighter competing meat supplies and lower feed costs will support a favorable margin environment for most producers, the industry remains cautious on herd expansion. The industry is increasingly prioritizing productivity enhancements, herd health, and optimizing carcass weights to counterbalance limited herd growth. Notably, China's policy to reduce sow numbers by 1 million, approximately 2.5% of its current base, will result in a 1% reduction in global sow numbers. However, Brazil's continued sow herd growth, fueled by favorable margins and robust export growth, partially offsets this decline.
Global pork trade has seen a 3% year-over-year increase through June, with expectations to end 2025 at or slightly above previous levels. Brazil stands out as a key beneficiary, poised to expand its market share from 12% to 15% of total global pork volumes by 2025. This success is attributed to Brazil's strategic efforts to broaden market access and diversify export relationships. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist, with the US and EU facing trade challenges with key export markets, including China.
Herd health was a significant disruptor of production and trade over the past year, but the early signs point to a more stable outlook in 2026. Disease losses earlier in 2025 have constrained pork supplies in most of the top production regions. African swine fever (ASF) continues to pose challenges, particularly in Vietnam, which reported over 970 cases and the loss of over 100,000 pigs in 2025. Despite efforts to enhance biosecurity and implement vaccine protocols, the virus remains difficult to control. Europe also faces ASF challenges, with Romania and Germany experiencing new outbreaks in their commercial herds. Additionally, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSv) are impacting production, with PRRSv driving notable losses in North American and European markets.
Pork prices are strong as demand growth outpaces supply in most markets. Key production regions, including the EU and North America, have seen pork inventories drop, leading to price increases of 10% and 21% year-to-date, respectively. Conversely, China's pork prices have dropped 42% year-over-year due to increased production efficiency. While pork consumption remains steady, inflationary pressures could dampen sales in late 2025 and early 2026. Despite these economic challenges, limited global beef and chicken supplies are expected to support pork consumption, although premium and export-dependent cuts may face downward pressure.
October 27, 2025/ Rabobank.
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