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Pig stocks in Germany have stabilised since 2023. The massive decline in stocks between 2020 and 2023 was due in part to the coronavirus pandemic with the loss of out-of-home consumption and the outbreak of ASF with the closure of many export markets. Since 2015, the number of fattening pigs has fallen by 23%, and the number of breeding sows by 31%. The decline was slightly stronger in the eastern than in the western federal states. The decline in pig farms is much more pronounced, meaning that the growth in farm size continues.
Since 2023, both slaughtering and gross own production have stabilised. The decline in imports of live pigs is mainly due to fewer imported slaughter pigs, as there is a shortage of slaughter animals across the EU. Production from own stock has risen sharply, while the breeding sow population has stagnated.
While pork exports are also expected to rise slightly in 2024 and 2025, imports are declining. It is clear that the domestic market is sufficiently supplied and offers less room for foreign goods.
The underlying data indicate stable to slightly declining pork consumption in 2025 and 2026. One assumption is that high beef prices will lead to a partial shift to pork.
Overall, domestic pork production remains significantly higher than domestic consumption. Despite the restrictions imposed by ASF on third-country markets, the industry is still managing to export considerable quantities. Accordingly, the self-sufficiency rate in Germany is between 130 and 140%.
October 2025/ Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut/ Germany.
https://www.thuenen.de
